Playbooks

What it is

A macro regime check reads the backdrop a market trades in: the policy rate, the shape of the yield curve, inflation and the events on the calendar. It does not predict price. It says whether the backdrop is easing or tightening, and which scheduled events could change the read in the next days.

What to look for

• Policy rate and its direction. Read get_macro_snapshot: the policy rate and how it changed. Cutting is easing, hiking is tightening, unchanged for a long time is steady.
• The curve. The 10Y-2Y slope from get_macro_snapshot. Inverted (below zero) has historically come with tight conditions; a slope that is steepening out of inversion is a change worth naming.
• Inflation and expectations. Rising inflation with a steady rate means policy is getting looser in real terms, and the reverse.
• Risk appetite. The ETF quotes in the snapshot (equities, bonds, gold) and compare_assets over the same window for the asset against them: does it move with them or apart from them?
• The calendar. High-impact events and earnings dates in the next days from the snapshot's calendar. Name the first one and its date.
• Freshness. The snapshot says which parts are stale or missing. Say so and do not fill a gap with a guess.

How to mark it

Macro data is not a price, so most of it belongs in the answer, not on the chart. On the asset's chart (open_chart first):

• marker on the candles of past high-impact events the user asks about (labelled with the event, below or above the candle).
• zone kind range for the range price held into the last policy decision, if it is still relevant.
• level for the price at the last policy decision, labelled Decision.

Scenario logic (analysis, not advice)

• Regime: easing, tightening or steady, in one line, with the two numbers that decide it.
• Fit: does the asset's own trend agree with the regime (a risk asset trending up in easing, or down in tightening)? When it does not, say the chart and the backdrop disagree.
• Event risk: the next high-impact event, and what a surprise in either direction has meant for this asset before, only if the data shows it.

Invalidation

The read changes when the policy rate changes direction, the curve crosses zero, or a high-impact release surprises against the trend of the series. Say which of these would change it.

Pitfalls

Macro moves slowly and charts move fast: do not explain a single candle with the backdrop. Correlations between an asset and macro series change over time; quote them for the window measured, never as a rule.