Playbooks

What it is

A checklist that decides whether there is a trend worth reading as one. It does not use a single indicator: a trend is called only when structure, averages, momentum and the higher timeframe agree. The playbook "Trend Following with Moving Averages" covers how to read a pullback once a trend is confirmed.

What to look for

Score each check as pass or fail, and report the score (for example 4 of 5).

1. Structure. get_candles.structure.trend and swings: higher highs and higher lows (up) or lower highs and lower lows (down).
2. Averages. The analyze_asset snapshot: price above a rising 50-period average with the 20 above it (up), or the mirror.
3. Momentum. RSI and MACD from the same snapshot agree with the direction (RSI above 50 and MACD above its signal for up).
4. Higher timeframe. The same checks on the next timeframe up (get_candles with 1d when reading 4h) agree.
5. Relative strength. compare_assets against a benchmark: the asset is outperforming in an uptrend, or underperforming in a downtrend.

How to mark it

• trendline along the higher lows (or lower highs) that define the structure.
• marker on the swing points used, labelled HH, HL, LH, LL.
• level for the last swing that would break the structure, labelled Structure.
• position only for a concrete pullback scenario.

Scenario logic (analysis, not advice)

• 5 of 5 or 4 of 5: a trend; read pullbacks with the moving-average playbook.
• 3 of 5: mixed; say which checks fail and that a trend is not confirmed.
• 2 or fewer: no trend; a range method (support and resistance, mean reversion) fits better.

Invalidation

The trend read ends when the structure check fails: a close below the last higher low (up) or above the last lower high (down).

Pitfalls

Indicators built from the same prices are not independent confirmations: structure and the higher timeframe carry the most weight. Do not lower the bar to call a trend.